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New England Patriots — NFL Betting Trends & Stats
2016–2026 · 187 games · AFC East. Every figure below is a record with its sample size, not a projection.
59.9%
Games won (112-75)
56.3%
Against the line (183)
47.6%
Games over the total
23.9
Points per game
19.6
Conceded per game
Are the Patriots a good bet against the line?
The Patriots have covered 56.3% of 183 games with a posted line since 2016, against a break-even of 52.4%. That is above break-even over this sample, which is worth knowing and is not the same as a system: a line moves with reputation, and a record this long covers several very different squads. Their straight win rate of 59.9% is a different question entirely: winning often and covering often come apart exactly as the market intends.
How do the Patriots perform at home and away?
| Venue | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At home | 97 | 61-36 | 62.9% | 56.8% (95) | 52.6% | 25 | 18.8 |
| Away | 90 | 51-39 | 56.7% | 55.7% (88) | 42.2% | 22.6 | 20.4 |
What happens when the Patriots are favourites?
| Market role | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite (9+) | 32 | 29-3 | 90.6% | 71.9% (32) | 46.9% | 32.2 | 14.3 |
| Any favourite | 122 | 92-30 | 75.4% | 62% (121) | 43.4% | 26.3 | 16.8 |
| Underdog | 65 | 20-45 | 30.8% | 45.2% (62) | 55.4% | 19.4 | 24.8 |
| Heavy underdog (9+) | 8 | 1-7 | 12.5% | 71.4% (7) | 62.5% | 19 | 27.1 |
Which quarters do the Patriots win?
| Period | Games | Won | Scored | Conceded | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st quarter | 180 | 45% | 4.9 | 4.1 | +0.8 |
| 2nd quarter | 180 | 52.8% | 7.7 | 6 | +1.6 |
| 3rd quarter | 180 | 47.2% | 5.1 | 4.1 | +1 |
| 4th quarter | 180 | 42.2% | 6.3 | 5.3 | +1 |
| 1st half | 180 | 55.6% | 12.6 | 10.1 | +2.5 |
| 2nd half | 180 | 53.3% | 11.4 | 9.4 | +2 |
The Patriots under each referee
| Referee | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Wrolstad | 13 | 10-3 | 76.9% | 69.2% (13) | 53.8% | 27.1 | 17.6 |
| Bill Vinovich | 13 | 8-5 | 61.5% | 69.2% (13) | 30.8% | 22.5 | 18.2 |
| Alex Kemp | 13 | 8-5 | 61.5% | 50% (12) | 61.5% | 24.9 | 20.8 |
| Brad Allen | 11 | 6-5 | 54.5% | 36.4% (11) | 54.5% | 23.1 | 23.5 |
| Carl Cheffers | 11 | 7-4 | 63.6% | 60% (10) | 54.5% | 23.7 | 18.5 |
| John Hussey | 11 | 4-7 | 36.4% | 27.3% (11) | 45.5% | 21.7 | 24.2 |
| Ron Torbert | 10 | 6-4 | 60% | 60% (10) | 80% | 26.4 | 22.4 |
| Clete Blakeman | 10 | 6-4 | 60% | 50% (10) | 40% | 23.4 | 19.2 |
| Shawn Hochuli | 9 | 6-3 | 66.7% | 75% (8) | 33.3% | 24 | 17.3 |
| Shawn Smith | 9 | 4-5 | 44.4% | 33.3% (9) | 33.3% | 20 | 22.8 |
| Adrian Hill | 8 | 3-5 | 37.5% | 75% (8) | 37.5% | 22.6 | 17.5 |
New England Patriots head-to-head record
| Opponent | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 22 | 12-10 | 54.5% | 63.6% (22) | 54.5% | 21.9 | 22.2 |
| New York Jets | 21 | 19-2 | 90.5% | 66.7% (21) | 33.3% | 26.2 | 12.8 |
| Miami Dolphins | 20 | 9-11 | 45% | 40% (20) | 55% | 24.6 | 20.8 |
| Houston Texans | 9 | 6-3 | 66.7% | 44.4% (9) | 66.7% | 26.7 | 22.6 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9 | 7-2 | 77.8% | 75% (8) | 22.2% | 22.8 | 14.8 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 7 | 5-2 | 71.4% | 71.4% (7) | 42.9% | 22.4 | 16.3 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6 | 2-4 | 33.3% | 20% (5) | 66.7% | 25 | 31.5 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 6 | 3-3 | 50% | 50% (6) | 50% | 28 | 19.3 |
| Tennessee Titans | 6 | 3-3 | 50% | 60% (5) | 50% | 23.7 | 19 |
| Cleveland Browns | 5 | 5-0 | 100% | 100% (5) | 60% | 35 | 12.2 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5 | 4-1 | 80% | 60% (5) | 40% | 25.8 | 16.4 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5 | 0-5 | 0% | 25% (4) | 60% | 19.4 | 26.2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 5 | 3-2 | 60% | 60% (5) | 80% | 25.4 | 27.6 |
| Denver Broncos | 5 | 4-1 | 80% | 60% (5) | 40% | 21 | 13.4 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 | 2-3 | 40% | 20% (5) | 60% | 23.2 | 25.6 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 5 | 2-3 | 40% | 60% (5) | 40% | 22.2 | 17.8 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 4 | 3-1 | 75% | 75% (4) | 25% | 21.8 | 20.3 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 4 | 2-2 | 50% | 50% (4) | 25% | 16 | 16.3 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 4 | 4-0 | 100% | 75% (4) | 50% | 26.5 | 14.5 |
| New Orleans Saints | 4 | 2-2 | 50% | 50% (4) | 25% | 18.5 | 25.3 |
| Chicago Bears | 4 | 2-2 | 50% | 50% (4) | 75% | 23.8 | 24.3 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 3 | 1-2 | 33.3% | 33.3% (3) | 33.3% | 16.3 | 26.7 |
| Carolina Panthers | 3 | 2-1 | 66.7% | 66.7% (3) | 66.7% | 32 | 17.3 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3 | 2-1 | 66.7% | 100% (3) | 33.3% | 21.3 | 18.7 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 3 | 1-2 | 33.3% | 33.3% (3) | 66.7% | 23.3 | 25.3 |
| New York Giants | 3 | 2-1 | 66.7% | 66.7% (3) | 66.7% | 25 | 13 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 3 | 1-2 | 33.3% | 0% (3) | 33.3% | 15 | 27.3 |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opponent | Score | Line | Covered | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Bears | A | 24–30 | +3 | no | over |
| 2026-10-18 | Jets | H | 26–19 | -7.5 | no | over |
| 2026-10-11 | Raiders | H | 45–17 | -3.5 | yes | over |
| 2026-10-04 | Bills | A | 29–26 | +7 | yes | over |
| 2026-09-27 | Jaguars | A | 6–35 | +3 | no | under |
| 2026-09-20 | Steelers | H | 20–3 | -4.5 | yes | under |
| 2026-09-09 | Seahawks | A | 10–13 | +3.5 | yes | under |
| 2026-02-08 | Seahawks | A | 13–29 | +4.5 | no | under |
| 2026-01-25 | Broncos | A | 10–7 | -3.5 | no | under |
| 2026-01-18 | Texans | H | 28–16 | -3.5 | yes | over |
New England Patriots season by season
| Season | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7 | 4-3 | 57.1% | 57.1% (7) | 57.1% | 22.9 | 20.4 |
| 2025 | 21 | 17-4 | 81% | 66.7% (21) | 57.1% | 26.5 | 17.9 |
| 2024 | 17 | 4-13 | 23.5% | 40% (15) | 64.7% | 17 | 24.5 |
| 2023 | 17 | 4-13 | 23.5% | 31.3% (16) | 41.2% | 13.9 | 21.5 |
| 2022 | 17 | 8-9 | 47.1% | 50% (16) | 47.1% | 21.4 | 20.4 |
| 2021 | 18 | 10-8 | 55.6% | 55.6% (18) | 55.6% | 26.6 | 19.4 |
| 2020 | 16 | 7-9 | 43.8% | 43.8% (16) | 31.3% | 20.4 | 22.1 |
| 2019 | 17 | 12-5 | 70.6% | 52.9% (17) | 41.2% | 25.5 | 14.4 |
| 2018 | 19 | 14-5 | 73.7% | 63.2% (19) | 36.8% | 27.7 | 20.4 |
| 2017 | 19 | 15-4 | 78.9% | 63.2% (19) | 47.4% | 28.9 | 19.5 |
| 2016 | 19 | 17-2 | 89.5% | 84.2% (19) | 47.4% | 28.7 | 16.4 |
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