NFL betting analysis — every market, explained

By Johnathan Cruzen-Myer · Updated 12 October 2026 · How this is measured

Every NFL market on this site, and what each page is for. Nothing here is a tip sheet: each page carries the sample behind its claim, the baseline that claim has to beat, and a walk-forward record measured on games the model had not seen.

Games this round This week’s board: line, total, venue, rest days and the officiating crew for every game. Week 8: 14 games, each with its closing line and total. Premium prop picks★ The paid board. Anytime touchdown, rushing and receiving yards, priced against each player’s own rate rather than the league average. 13,890 graded player-games. 6.1% better than each player's own rate in the same band. Market prices★ What each of the forty markets on a book’s board is actually worth — winning margin, odd/even, highest-scoring quarter, and the order-of-scoring markets. A winning margin of exactly 3 happens 14.8% of the time, off 2,827 games. Order of scoring Who scores first, who scores last, and the race to 5, 10, 15 and 20. The least examined numbers a book posts. 2,667 games with a full scoring sequence. Best out-of-sample result: home races to 20, 12.6% better than knowing only the base rate. Board checker★ Type in a posted board and see the model price beside it, the margin you are being charged, and whether any gap survives its own confidence interval. Player markets Each player’s form for a market, set against what the opposing defence concedes to that position. 812 players with enough history to read, over 11,965 player-games. Quarter markets Winner, line and total for each quarter, with a walk-forward record for every claim. 6,785 backtested picks on markets that can actually be bet: 50% against a 49.8% fair-line baseline. Half markets The same for each half, including the second-half number that is far more predictable than the first. Scoring stats How points actually arrive: by quarter, by margin, and by how the game was shaped. Team rule lab Build your own rule and have it tested honestly, including against a shuffled null that destroys real structure. 2,772 games searched for a rule that beats the market. None survived. Heavy favourites Whether short prices are worth taking, by how short they are. Officials Crew-level splits on totals, penalties and home sides — with the multiple-comparisons arithmetic attached. Streaks Runs of covers, overs and wins, each with the probability it is simply luck. 1 of 36 streak buckets beat chance, against 1.8 expected. There is a 84.2% chance that is luck alone. Every club A page per club, built from that club’s own games. One page per club, 32 of them, with that club's own splits rather than a league table. Best bets★ The strongest selection each round across all four codes, with the record that justifies it. 4 of 26 backtested cells turned a profit, and 0 did so beyond chance. Break-even is 52.4%. Accuracy How the tips have actually done, published whether or not it flatters the model. Results by week Every completed game this season, quarter by quarter, further down this page.

Results by week

Thinking…

Each game shows the quarter-by-quarter scoring, half-time and second-half splits, the closing total with the over/under result, the stadium, date, home/away and the officiating crew, plus each team's season-to-date form. Informational only, not betting advice · 18+.

NFL analysis — weekly results, trends and situational splits

NFL analysis here is built around situational splits rather than power rankings. Each team's results are broken down by quarter and half, against the spread and against the total, with venue and rest-day context attached to every game.

Rest matters more in the NFL than in any other code covered on this site. A team coming off a Thursday game, a bye, or a long road trip is in a measurably different position from one on a standard week, and the market does not always price it fully.

For the player side — anytime touchdown, rushing and receiving yards — see the NFL player props page, which layers each player's form against what the opposing defence concedes to that position.

Frequently asked questions

What does ATS mean in NFL betting?

Against the spread: whether a team covered the points handicap, rather than simply whether they won the game.

Do you track rest days and short weeks?

Yes. Every game carries its rest-day count, so Thursday games, post-bye spots and short turnarounds can be compared against normal weeks.

Do betting trends actually beat their own baseline?

Situational trends replayed walk-forward against the matched baseline — each team's own rate over exactly the matches the trend fired on.
Code	Predictions graded	Trend hit rate	Matched baseline	Edge
NRL	8,251	55.3%	57.5%	-2.1
AFL	18,291	53.6%	56.6%	-2.9
NFL	17,168	56.5%	59.6%	-3

The answer measured here is no. Across all four codes, situational trends hit at or below the rate the same teams were already achieving over the same matches, so the apparent edge is the baseline, not a finding. The comparison is against each team's own rate — never 50%, never the league average — because a trend that fires mostly on good teams will look predictive against any other yardstick.