What is the Buffalo Bills record against the spread?

Buffalo Bills have covered 51.6% of 182 games with a posted line since 2016. Pushes are excluded rather than counted as losses. The break-even rate at standard pricing is 52.4%.

Do Buffalo Bills games go over the total?

51.1% of 186 Buffalo Bills games with a posted total have gone over, averaging 25.8 points scored and 21 conceded.

How do Buffalo Bills perform as favourites?

Heavy favourite (9+): 93.5% won and 41.9% covered from 31 games. Any favourite: 75.2% won and 51.7% covered from 121 games. Underdog: 41.5% won and 51.6% covered from 65 games.

By Johnathan Cruzen-Myer · Updated 28 October 2026 · How this is measured

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Buffalo Bills — NFL Betting Trends & Stats

2016–2026 · 186 games · AFC East. Every figure below is a record with its sample size, not a projection.

63.4%

Games won (118-68)

51.6%

Against the line (182)

51.1%

Games over the total

25.8

Points per game

Conceded per game

Are the Bills a good bet against the line?

The Bills have covered 51.6% of 182 games with a posted line since 2016, against a break-even of 52.4%. That is below break-even, which is the ordinary case — the line exists to make both sides roughly equal, and over a long enough record almost every club lands near 50%. Their straight win rate of 63.4% is a different question entirely: winning often and covering often come apart exactly as the market intends.

How do the Bills perform at home and away?

Buffalo Bills by venue.
Venue	Games	W-L	Win%	Against the line	Over	Points for	Points against
At home	95	70-25	73.7%	52.1% (94)	58.9%	27.5	20.2
Away	91	48-43	52.7%	51.1% (88)	42.9%	24	21.9

What happens when the Bills are favourites?

Buffalo Bills by role in the market. Bands are this club's own spread distribution, so "heavy" means heavy for them.
Market role	Games	W-L	Win%	Against the line	Over	Points for	Points against
Heavy favourite (9+)	31	29-2	93.5%	41.9% (31)	51.6%	28.6	15.1
Any favourite	121	91-30	75.2%	51.7% (120)	52.9%	28.1	19.1
Underdog	65	27-38	41.5%	51.6% (62)	47.7%	21.4	24.6

Which quarters do the Bills win?

Buffalo Bills by scoring period, from games where period scores are held.
Period	Games	Won	Scored	Conceded	Margin
1st quarter	184	45.1%	5	3.8	+1.1
2nd quarter	184	47.8%	7.7	6.8	+0.8
3rd quarter	184	49.5%	5.7	3.8	+1.8
4th quarter	184	47.3%	7.5	6.5	+1
1st half	184	53.8%	12.6	10.7	+2
2nd half	184	55.4%	13.1	10.3	+2.8

The Bills under each referee

Buffalo Bills by referee, minimum 8 games. Differences at this sample size are mostly noise — a ten-game split has a standard error near sixteen points.
Referee	Games	W-L	Win%	Against the line	Over	Points for	Points against
Carl Cheffers	15	11-4	73.3%	60% (15)	53.3%	24.9	19.8
Shawn Smith	14	9-5	64.3%	64.3% (14)	50%	26.9	21.2
Bill Vinovich	13	7-6	53.8%	38.5% (13)	46.2%	24.7	21.7
Clete Blakeman	13	10-3	76.9%	50% (12)	69.2%	30.3	20.8
John Hussey	12	7-5	58.3%	66.7% (12)	58.3%	26.9	21.1
Brad Allen	11	8-3	72.7%	45.5% (11)	36.4%	24	20.7
Craig Wrolstad	11	4-7	36.4%	63.6% (11)	63.6%	28.7	22.3
Alex Kemp	10	7-3	70%	60% (10)	20%	25.1	17

Buffalo Bills head-to-head record

Buffalo Bills against every opponent met at least three times.
Opponent	Games	W-L	Win%	Against the line	Over	Points for	Points against
New England Patriots	22	10-12	45.5%	36.4% (22)	54.5%	22.2	21.9
Miami Dolphins	21	16-5	76.2%	47.6% (21)	57.1%	30.3	21
New York Jets	20	13-7	65%	55% (20)	45%	25	17.3
Kansas City Chiefs	11	6-5	54.5%	54.5% (11)	54.5%	26	24.9
Baltimore Ravens	8	4-4	50%	37.5% (8)	37.5%	18.1	25.9
Jacksonville Jaguars	7	4-3	57.1%	57.1% (7)	42.9%	22.1	17.1
Pittsburgh Steelers	7	5-2	71.4%	71.4% (7)	28.6%	24.9	14.6
Cincinnati Bengals	6	3-3	50%	16.7% (6)	16.7%	20	22.3
Denver Broncos	6	4-2	66.7%	66.7% (6)	50%	29.5	17
Tennessee Titans	6	4-2	66.7%	66.7% (6)	66.7%	24.8	18.7
Houston Texans	6	2-4	33.3%	50% (6)	16.7%	24.5	19.8
Los Angeles Rams	5	4-1	80%	80% (5)	80%	35	27.8
Las Vegas Raiders	5	4-1	80%	60% (5)	80%	31.8	23
Los Angeles Chargers	5	3-2	60%	40% (5)	60%	23.8	28
Indianapolis Colts	5	3-2	60%	40% (5)	60%	18	25.8
Cleveland Browns	4	3-1	75%	66.7% (3)	75%	25.8	18.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	3-1	75%	33.3% (3)	75%	31.3	27.5
Detroit Lions	4	4-0	100%	50% (4)	50%	32.8	27.8
Arizona Cardinals	3	2-1	66.7%	66.7% (3)	100%	32.3	26
San Francisco 49ers	3	3-0	100%	100% (3)	66.7%	38	16.7
Seattle Seahawks	3	2-1	66.7%	100% (2)	66.7%	33.3	25
Carolina Panthers	3	2-1	66.7%	100% (2)	66.7%	24.7	10.7
Atlanta Falcons	3	2-1	66.7%	33.3% (3)	0%	22	18.7
New Orleans Saints	3	2-1	66.7%	33.3% (3)	66.7%	24	24
Philadelphia Eagles	3	0-3	0%	0% (3)	66.7%	19.7	27
Washington Commanders	3	3-0	100%	100% (3)	33.3%	34.7	11

Last 10 games

Buffalo Bills most recent results.
Date	Opponent		Score	Line	Covered	Total
2026-10-18	Raiders	A	33–30	-5.5	no	over
2026-10-12	Rams	A	37–34	+3.5	yes	over
2026-10-04	Patriots	H	26–29	-7	no	over
2026-09-27	Chargers	H	24–16	-7.5	yes	under
2026-09-17	Lions	H	41–31	-5.5	yes	over
2026-09-13	Texans	A	36–31	-1.5	yes	over
2026-01-17	Broncos	A	30–33	+1.5	no	over
2026-01-11	Jaguars	A	27–24	+1.5	yes	under
2026-01-04	Jets	H	35–8	-13.5	yes	over
2025-12-28	Eagles	H	12–13	-3	no	under

Buffalo Bills season by season

Buffalo Bills by season.
Season	Games	W-L	Win%	Against the line	Over	Points for	Points against
2026	6	5-1	83.3%	66.7% (6)	83.3%	32.8	28.5
2025	19	13-6	68.4%	47.4% (19)	52.6%	28.3	22.2
2024	20	15-5	75%	60% (20)	65%	30.6	21.6
2023	19	12-7	63.2%	42.1% (19)	42.1%	26.6	18.7
2022	18	14-4	77.8%	38.9% (18)	38.9%	27.7	19.1
2021	19	12-7	63.2%	57.9% (19)	52.6%	29.8	18.3
2020	19	15-4	78.9%	63.2% (19)	63.2%	29.9	23.2
2019	17	10-7	58.8%	56.3% (16)	23.5%	19.6	16.5
2018	16	6-10	37.5%	43.8% (16)	43.8%	16.8	23.4
2017	17	9-8	52.9%	60% (15)	41.2%	17.9	21.7
2016	16	7-9	43.8%	40% (15)	75%	24.9	23.6

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