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Penrith Panthers — NRL Betting Trends & Stats
2016–2026 · 286 games. Every figure below is a record with its sample size, not a projection.
69.2%
Games won (198-86-2)
54.3%
Against the line (280)
42.6%
Games over the total
24.2
Points per game
16
Conceded per game
Are the Panthers a good bet against the line?
The Panthers have covered 54.3% of 280 games with a posted line since 2016, against a break-even of 52.4%. That is above break-even over this sample, which is worth knowing and is not the same as a system: a line moves with reputation, and a record this long covers several very different squads. Their straight win rate of 69.2% is a different question entirely: winning often and covering often come apart exactly as the market intends.
How do the Panthers perform at home and away?
| Venue | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At home | 147 | 111-35-1 | 75.5% | 59.7% (144) | 42.1% | 24.4 | 14.3 |
| Away | 139 | 87-51-1 | 62.6% | 48.5% (136) | 43.2% | 23.9 | 17.8 |
What happens when the Panthers are favourites?
| Market role | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite (13.5+) | 57 | 52-5 | 91.2% | 49.1% (57) | 40.4% | 30.8 | 11.5 |
| Any favourite | 219 | 162-55-2 | 74% | 51.4% (218) | 42.5% | 25.6 | 15.1 |
| Underdog | 65 | 34-31 | 52.3% | 64.5% (62) | 43.1% | 19.1 | 19.4 |
Which halfs do the Panthers win?
| Period | Games | Won | Scored | Conceded | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st half | 279 | 59.5% | 11.8 | 8.1 | +3.7 |
| 2nd half | 279 | 60.2% | 12.4 | 7.9 | +4.5 |
The Panthers under each referee
| Referee | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Klein | 45 | 26-19 | 57.8% | 51.2% (43) | 56.8% | 23.1 | 18.4 |
| G. Sutton | 45 | 32-13 | 71.1% | 61.4% (44) | 40% | 22.9 | 13.6 |
| A. Gee | 28 | 26-2 | 92.9% | 75% (28) | 42.9% | 29.3 | 12.9 |
| G. Atkins | 26 | 17-9 | 65.4% | 61.5% (26) | 19.2% | 23.6 | 13.5 |
| B. Cummins | 22 | 13-8-1 | 59.1% | 47.6% (21) | 31.8% | 20.9 | 14.9 |
| M. Cecchin | 17 | 11-6 | 64.7% | 47.1% (17) | 52.9% | 24.5 | 18.8 |
| H. Perenara | 15 | 10-5 | 66.7% | 46.7% (15) | 40% | 20.2 | 16.5 |
| P. Gough | 15 | 12-3 | 80% | 53.3% (15) | 26.7% | 27.5 | 14.5 |
| T. Smith | 14 | 7-6-1 | 50% | 35.7% (14) | 64.3% | 25.4 | 22 |
| G. Badger | 8 | 6-2 | 75% | 50% (8) | 62.5% | 26.6 | 20 |
Penrith Panthers head-to-head record
| Opponent | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parramatta Eels | 24 | 17-7 | 70.8% | 52.2% (23) | 29.2% | 21.3 | 15.9 |
| South Sydney Rabbitohs | 22 | 16-6 | 72.7% | 66.7% (21) | 50% | 24.5 | 17 |
| Sydney Roosters | 21 | 16-5 | 76.2% | 73.7% (19) | 50% | 25.4 | 15.4 |
| New Zealand Warriors | 21 | 16-5 | 76.2% | 71.4% (21) | 42.9% | 25.6 | 16.2 |
| Melbourne Storm | 21 | 11-10 | 52.4% | 52.4% (21) | 52.4% | 18.5 | 16.9 |
| Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs | 19 | 14-5 | 73.7% | 63.2% (19) | 31.6% | 24.5 | 13.3 |
| Brisbane Broncos | 19 | 12-7 | 63.2% | 42.1% (19) | 36.8% | 20.8 | 15.7 |
| Canberra Raiders | 18 | 12-6 | 66.7% | 55.6% (18) | 55.6% | 26.4 | 19.4 |
| North Queensland Cowboys | 18 | 8-9-1 | 44.4% | 33.3% (18) | 50% | 21.3 | 18.3 |
| Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks | 18 | 10-8 | 55.6% | 58.8% (17) | 50% | 25.6 | 16 |
| Manly Warringah Sea Eagles | 18 | 14-4 | 77.8% | 55.6% (18) | 44.4% | 25.6 | 16.1 |
| Wests Tigers | 18 | 14-4 | 77.8% | 52.9% (17) | 17.6% | 25.1 | 12.2 |
| Newcastle Knights | 18 | 15-2-1 | 83.3% | 55.6% (18) | 38.9% | 29.1 | 13.4 |
| Gold Coast Titans | 14 | 11-3 | 78.6% | 42.9% (14) | 42.9% | 25.5 | 15.6 |
| St George Illawarra Dragons | 13 | 9-4 | 69.2% | 38.5% (13) | 53.8% | 26.2 | 17.5 |
| Redcliffe Dolphins | 4 | 3-1 | 75% | 0% (4) | 25% | 21.8 | 23 |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opponent | Score | Line | Covered | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Roosters | H | 19–12 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-06 | Tigers | H | 38–10 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-28 | Bulldogs | H | 24–10 | -9.5 | yes | under |
| 2026-08-20 | Storm | A | 22–14 | -7.5 | yes | under |
| 2026-08-13 | Roosters | H | 6–12 | -5.5 | no | under |
| 2026-08-07 | Warriors | A | 12–28 | -3.5 | no | under |
| 2026-08-01 | Raiders | H | 42–18 | -9.5 | yes | over |
| 2026-07-23 | Eels | A | 24–18 | -15.5 | no | under |
| 2026-07-16 | Broncos | H | 12–14 | -12.5 | no | under |
| 2026-07-03 | Rabbitohs | H | 36–14 | -4.5 | yes | over |
Penrith Panthers season by season
| Season | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25 | 19-6 | 76% | 56.5% (23) | 30.4% | 28.1 | 14.4 |
| 2025 | 27 | 15-11-1 | 55.6% | 51.9% (27) | 40.7% | 24.4 | 19.2 |
| 2024 | 27 | 20-7 | 74.1% | 48.1% (27) | 40.7% | 24.1 | 15.4 |
| 2023 | 27 | 21-6 | 77.8% | 51.9% (27) | 48.1% | 27.4 | 12.8 |
| 2022 | 27 | 23-4 | 85.2% | 66.7% (27) | 55.6% | 26.8 | 13.4 |
| 2021 | 28 | 24-4 | 85.7% | 50% (28) | 32.1% | 25.6 | 11.6 |
| 2020 | 23 | 20-2-1 | 87% | 68.2% (22) | 39.1% | 26.3 | 13.4 |
| 2019 | 24 | 11-13 | 45.8% | 45.5% (22) | 33.3% | 17.2 | 19.8 |
| 2018 | 26 | 16-10 | 61.5% | 46.2% (26) | 61.5% | 21.7 | 19 |
| 2017 | 26 | 14-12 | 53.8% | 53.8% (26) | 38.5% | 20.5 | 18.5 |
| 2016 | 26 | 15-11 | 57.7% | 60% (25) | 46.2% | 23.2 | 19.1 |
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