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New Zealand Warriors — NRL Betting Trends & Stats
2016–2026 · 266 games. Every figure below is a record with its sample size, not a projection.
45.5%
Games won (121-143-2)
48.1%
Against the line (264)
47.3%
Games over the total
20.6
Points per game
22.8
Conceded per game
Are the Warriors a good bet against the line?
The Warriors have covered 48.1% of 264 games with a posted line since 2016, against a break-even of 52.4%. That is below break-even, which is the ordinary case — the line exists to make both sides roughly equal, and over a long enough record almost every club lands near 50%. Their straight win rate of 45.5% is a different question entirely: winning often and covering often come apart exactly as the market intends.
How do the Warriors perform at home and away?
| Venue | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At home | 133 | 71-61-1 | 53.4% | 45% (131) | 43.5% | 21.1 | 20.4 |
| Away | 133 | 50-82-1 | 37.6% | 51.1% (133) | 51.1% | 20.2 | 25.3 |
What happens when the Warriors are favourites?
| Market role | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite (10.5+) | 17 | 11-6 | 64.7% | 17.6% (17) | 41.2% | 23.4 | 20.4 |
| Any favourite | 120 | 71-48-1 | 59.2% | 40.8% (120) | 42.5% | 23.2 | 19.5 |
| Underdog | 144 | 49-94-1 | 34% | 54.2% (144) | 51.4% | 18.5 | 25.6 |
| Heavy underdog (10.5+) | 41 | 7-34 | 17.1% | 46.3% (41) | 48.8% | 14.7 | 31.8 |
Which halfs do the Warriors win?
| Period | Games | Won | Scored | Conceded | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st half | 259 | 40.2% | 10.4 | 12 | -1.6 |
| 2nd half | 259 | 47.1% | 9.8 | 11 | -1.1 |
The Warriors under each referee
| Referee | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Cecchin | 23 | 8-15 | 34.8% | 30.4% (23) | 47.8% | 16.6 | 27 |
| A. Gee | 22 | 8-14 | 36.4% | 54.5% (22) | 45.5% | 22.3 | 23.9 |
| G. Atkins | 21 | 11-10 | 52.4% | 57.1% (21) | 52.4% | 21 | 21.8 |
| P. Gough | 20 | 11-9 | 55% | 50% (20) | 25% | 20.9 | 18.1 |
| C. Butler | 20 | 7-12-1 | 35% | 40% (20) | 35% | 17.8 | 24.1 |
| C. Sutton | 19 | 7-11-1 | 36.8% | 68.4% (19) | 36.8% | 18 | 22.3 |
| G. Sutton | 17 | 5-12 | 29.4% | 25% (16) | 43.8% | 19.7 | 25.6 |
| H. Perenara | 17 | 10-7 | 58.8% | 58.8% (17) | 58.8% | 20.5 | 21.1 |
| A. Klein | 16 | 6-10 | 37.5% | 37.5% (16) | 43.8% | 16.6 | 23.6 |
| B. Cummins | 15 | 6-9 | 40% | 53.3% (15) | 53.3% | 18.5 | 26 |
| T. Smith | 12 | 5-7 | 41.7% | 33.3% (12) | 58.3% | 19.8 | 22.7 |
| G. Reynolds | 9 | 5-4 | 55.6% | 44.4% (9) | 55.6% | 21.6 | 22 |
| G. Badger | 9 | 3-6 | 33.3% | 55.6% (9) | 66.7% | 20.8 | 22.7 |
| W. Raymond | 9 | 6-3 | 66.7% | 66.7% (9) | 66.7% | 29.3 | 22.8 |
New Zealand Warriors head-to-head record
| Opponent | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle Knights | 21 | 13-8 | 61.9% | 47.6% (21) | 42.9% | 24 | 17.8 |
| Penrith Panthers | 21 | 5-16 | 23.8% | 28.6% (21) | 42.9% | 16.2 | 25.6 |
| Canberra Raiders | 21 | 9-12 | 42.9% | 42.9% (21) | 28.6% | 18.6 | 23.2 |
| Gold Coast Titans | 20 | 12-8 | 60% | 50% (20) | 35% | 22.3 | 21.6 |
| Melbourne Storm | 18 | 1-17 | 5.6% | 33.3% (18) | 72.2% | 14.7 | 33.2 |
| Manly Warringah Sea Eagles | 18 | 7-10-1 | 38.9% | 52.9% (17) | 82.4% | 23.4 | 25.5 |
| St George Illawarra Dragons | 18 | 12-6 | 66.7% | 50% (18) | 27.8% | 20.2 | 16.4 |
| Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks | 18 | 6-12 | 33.3% | 38.9% (18) | 55.6% | 19.3 | 24.2 |
| Brisbane Broncos | 17 | 9-7-1 | 52.9% | 58.8% (17) | 35.3% | 22.7 | 17.9 |
| Wests Tigers | 16 | 11-5 | 68.8% | 50% (16) | 50% | 23.4 | 20.4 |
| North Queensland Cowboys | 15 | 10-5 | 66.7% | 53.3% (15) | 40% | 23.3 | 22.3 |
| Sydney Roosters | 14 | 6-8 | 42.9% | 57.1% (14) | 35.7% | 15.4 | 21.4 |
| Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs | 14 | 8-6 | 57.1% | 64.3% (14) | 42.9% | 21.4 | 18.3 |
| South Sydney Rabbitohs | 14 | 4-10 | 28.6% | 42.9% (14) | 85.7% | 22.2 | 32.4 |
| Parramatta Eels | 12 | 4-8 | 33.3% | 58.3% (12) | 66.7% | 24 | 23.8 |
| Redcliffe Dolphins | 9 | 4-5 | 44.4% | 62.5% (8) | 12.5% | 21.1 | 22 |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opponent | Score | Line | Covered | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Dolphins | H | 16–26 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-05 | Sea Eagles | H | 31–30 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-30 | Knights | H | 46–32 | -7.5 | yes | over |
| 2026-08-22 | Rabbitohs | A | 45–26 | -3.5 | yes | over |
| 2026-08-15 | Broncos | A | 40–6 | -7.5 | yes | under |
| 2026-08-07 | Panthers | H | 28–12 | +3.5 | yes | under |
| 2026-08-01 | Titans | A | 42–6 | -4.5 | yes | under |
| 2026-07-25 | Bulldogs | A | 6–18 | -3.5 | no | under |
| 2026-07-18 | Dragons | H | 20–12 | -16.5 | no | under |
| 2026-07-10 | Tigers | A | 32–6 | -8.5 | yes | under |
New Zealand Warriors season by season
| Season | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25 | 18-7 | 72% | 65.2% (23) | 34.8% | 29.8 | 17.8 |
| 2025 | 25 | 14-11 | 56% | 48% (25) | 48% | 21 | 20.8 |
| 2024 | 24 | 9-14-1 | 37.5% | 41.7% (24) | 45.8% | 21.3 | 23.9 |
| 2023 | 27 | 17-10 | 63% | 59.3% (27) | 48.1% | 23.3 | 19.7 |
| 2022 | 24 | 6-18 | 25% | 45.8% (24) | 45.8% | 17 | 29.2 |
| 2021 | 24 | 8-16 | 33.3% | 29.2% (24) | 37.5% | 18.9 | 26 |
| 2020 | 20 | 8-12 | 40% | 60% (20) | 40% | 17.2 | 22.9 |
| 2019 | 24 | 9-14-1 | 37.5% | 54.2% (24) | 70.8% | 18 | 23.9 |
| 2018 | 25 | 15-10 | 60% | 56% (25) | 40% | 19.4 | 19 |
| 2017 | 24 | 7-17 | 29.2% | 33.3% (24) | 54.2% | 18.5 | 24 |
| 2016 | 24 | 10-14 | 41.7% | 37.5% (24) | 54.2% | 21.4 | 25 |
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