NRL multi-try markets
Books price 1+, 2+ and 3+ tries as three separate markets. This page covers the multi-try rungs — longer prices, and far less well understood than anytime.
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NRL 2+ and 3+ try markets — base rates and strike rates
The anytime try scorer market (1+ try) is covered on the try scorers page. 2+ tries and 3+ tries are different propositions: the player has to score, and then score again. That compounding is why the prices lengthen so sharply — a $2.00 anytime chance is nowhere near a $4.00 double chance.
The league base rates are the anchor. Of every try-scoring performance in the sample, 19.4% were doubles and only 3.0% were three or more. So roughly one try-scorer in five goes on to a second, and one in thirty-three reaches a treble. Any 2+ price should be read against that starting point before a player’s own form enters the picture.
Two different questions get their own tables below. 2+ strike rate is doubles per game named — directly comparable with a market price. Double rate when scoring asks a narrower question: of the games a player did score in, how often was it a multi? A high-volume winger and a player whose tries arrive in pairs can look identical on one measure and very different on the other.
Frequently asked questions
How often does an NRL try scorer score twice?
19.4% of try-scoring performances in the sample were doubles, and 3.0% were three or more. Roughly one scorer in five goes on to a second try.
Is a 2+ tries bet just half an anytime bet?
No. The player must score and then score again, so the probability compounds rather than halves. A player with a 40% anytime chance typically has a 2+ chance well under 20%, which is why the prices lengthen so much.
What does break-even mean on this page?
The decimal price at which a given strike rate is a neutral bet. A 20% strike rate breaks even at $5.00 — shorter than that and you are paying over the odds on those historical numbers.
How much data is behind these rates?
One NRL season: 204 games and 1,400 try-scorer entries. That is enough for the league base rates, but individual player rates rest on roughly 20 appearances each and should be treated as descriptive rather than predictive.
How often does an NRL player score two or more tries?
Far less often than an anytime market suggests, and the tables above give the rate by player and position. The important discipline is the comparison: a 2+ try claim is measured against that player's own anytime rate over the same matches, not against a squad or league average. A rule that fires mostly on wingers in good teams will look predictive against any weaker yardstick.
Are multi-try markets worth betting?
They carry a wide margin, which is the first thing to know. A 3+ try market in particular prices a rare event, and rare events are where a bookmaker's edge is largest. Nothing on this page is graded against a historical price because none is stored, so no return is claimed for any of it.
Round 30 — 2026 NRL results, lines and totals
| Match | Date | Venue | Result | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle Knights at Penrith Panthers | 2026-09-27 | Accor Stadium | Penrith Panthers 14–22 Newcastle Knights | Penrith Panthers -6.5 | 41.5 |
1 match in Round 30, all complete. The closing line and total are shown beside each result so the margin can be read against what the market expected. When the next round's fixtures are posted this table becomes the upcoming card.