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Brisbane Broncos — NRL Betting Trends & Stats
2016–2026 · 273 games. Every figure below is a record with its sample size, not a projection.
50.5%
Games won (138-134-1)
48.9%
Against the line (270)
54.8%
Games over the total
21.9
Points per game
22.9
Conceded per game
Are the Broncos a good bet against the line?
The Broncos have covered 48.9% of 270 games with a posted line since 2016, against a break-even of 52.4%. That is below break-even, which is the ordinary case — the line exists to make both sides roughly equal, and over a long enough record almost every club lands near 50%. Their straight win rate of 50.5% is a different question entirely: winning often and covering often come apart exactly as the market intends.
How do the Broncos perform at home and away?
| Venue | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At home | 136 | 76-59-1 | 55.9% | 49.6% (135) | 56.6% | 23.7 | 22.3 |
| Away | 137 | 62-75 | 45.3% | 48.1% (135) | 52.9% | 20 | 23.6 |
What happens when the Broncos are favourites?
| Market role | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite (12+) | 31 | 23-8 | 74.2% | 46.7% (30) | 45.2% | 30.7 | 16 |
| Any favourite | 158 | 99-58-1 | 62.7% | 47.8% (157) | 53.8% | 25.2 | 19.6 |
| Underdog | 114 | 38-76 | 33.3% | 50.4% (113) | 56.1% | 17.2 | 27.6 |
| Heavy underdog (12+) | 24 | 5-19 | 20.8% | 62.5% (24) | 45.8% | 15 | 29 |
Which halfs do the Broncos win?
| Period | Games | Won | Scored | Conceded | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st half | 267 | 45.3% | 10.5 | 11.2 | -0.7 |
| 2nd half | 267 | 45.3% | 11.4 | 11.5 | -0.1 |
The Broncos under each referee
| Referee | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Sutton | 37 | 23-14 | 62.2% | 54.1% (37) | 56.8% | 21.7 | 20.9 |
| A. Klein | 36 | 20-16 | 55.6% | 50% (36) | 55.6% | 22 | 23.4 |
| G. Atkins | 36 | 16-20 | 44.4% | 48.6% (35) | 57.1% | 19.9 | 24.1 |
| A. Gee | 26 | 8-18 | 30.8% | 34.6% (26) | 53.8% | 18.2 | 28 |
| B. Cummins | 23 | 11-12 | 47.8% | 52.2% (23) | 47.8% | 19.9 | 22.3 |
| M. Cecchin | 20 | 7-13 | 35% | 44.4% (18) | 55% | 18.2 | 23.5 |
| T. Smith | 16 | 10-6 | 62.5% | 43.8% (16) | 43.8% | 21.6 | 24.3 |
| H. Perenara | 12 | 5-7 | 41.7% | 50% (12) | 66.7% | 23.1 | 21 |
| C. Sutton | 12 | 4-7-1 | 33.3% | 33.3% (12) | 41.7% | 19.4 | 20.7 |
| P. Gough | 11 | 6-5 | 54.5% | 36.4% (11) | 54.5% | 28.5 | 22.5 |
Brisbane Broncos head-to-head record
| Opponent | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Storm | 24 | 5-19 | 20.8% | 33.3% (24) | 66.7% | 15.4 | 31.4 |
| North Queensland Cowboys | 23 | 13-10 | 56.5% | 56.5% (23) | 69.6% | 25.2 | 21.8 |
| Gold Coast Titans | 22 | 13-9 | 59.1% | 45.5% (22) | 63.6% | 27 | 21.1 |
| Sydney Roosters | 22 | 8-14 | 36.4% | 54.5% (22) | 54.5% | 20.4 | 25.3 |
| South Sydney Rabbitohs | 21 | 12-9 | 57.1% | 47.6% (21) | 57.1% | 21 | 22.7 |
| Parramatta Eels | 20 | 9-11 | 45% | 40% (20) | 60% | 21.1 | 27.3 |
| Penrith Panthers | 19 | 7-12 | 36.8% | 57.9% (19) | 36.8% | 15.7 | 20.8 |
| Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs | 18 | 13-5 | 72.2% | 64.7% (17) | 52.9% | 25.5 | 18.3 |
| New Zealand Warriors | 17 | 7-9-1 | 41.2% | 41.2% (17) | 35.3% | 17.9 | 22.7 |
| Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks | 15 | 10-5 | 66.7% | 60% (15) | 40% | 22.5 | 19.1 |
| St George Illawarra Dragons | 14 | 5-9 | 35.7% | 30.8% (13) | 71.4% | 23.3 | 25.4 |
| Canberra Raiders | 14 | 9-5 | 64.3% | 46.2% (13) | 85.7% | 23.4 | 23.4 |
| Newcastle Knights | 13 | 8-5 | 61.5% | 53.8% (13) | 46.2% | 26.2 | 18.3 |
| Manly Warringah Sea Eagles | 12 | 7-5 | 58.3% | 58.3% (12) | 33.3% | 22.4 | 19.8 |
| Wests Tigers | 11 | 6-5 | 54.5% | 45.5% (11) | 45.5% | 24.4 | 21.5 |
| Redcliffe Dolphins | 8 | 6-2 | 75% | 50% (8) | 25% | 24 | 21.8 |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opponent | Score | Line | Covered | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Bulldogs | A | 34–20 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-27 | Storm | H | 20–46 | +4.5 | no | over |
| 2026-08-21 | Raiders | A | 34–30 | +11.5 | yes | over |
| 2026-08-15 | Warriors | H | 6–40 | +7.5 | no | under |
| 2026-08-08 | Dolphins | A | 32–40 | +8.5 | yes | over |
| 2026-08-01 | Knights | H | 6–30 | -5.5 | no | under |
| 2026-07-25 | Cowboys | A | 10–18 | -4.5 | no | under |
| 2026-07-16 | Panthers | A | 14–12 | +12.5 | yes | under |
| 2026-07-04 | Sharks | H | 16–28 | +6.5 | no | under |
| 2026-06-26 | Roosters | H | 18–24 | +7.5 | yes | under |
Brisbane Broncos season by season
| Season | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24 | 8-16 | 33.3% | 39.1% (23) | 43.5% | 19.6 | 28.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | 18-9 | 66.7% | 55.6% (27) | 48.1% | 27.8 | 21.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | 10-14 | 41.7% | 37.5% (24) | 62.5% | 22.4 | 25.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | 20-7 | 74.1% | 66.7% (27) | 51.9% | 27.1 | 17.1 |
| 2022 | 24 | 13-11 | 54.2% | 54.2% (24) | 70.8% | 21.4 | 22.9 |
| 2021 | 24 | 7-17 | 29.2% | 50% (24) | 45.8% | 18.6 | 29 |
| 2020 | 20 | 3-17 | 15% | 35% (20) | 55% | 13.4 | 31.2 |
| 2019 | 25 | 11-13-1 | 44% | 41.7% (24) | 48% | 17.3 | 21.9 |
| 2018 | 25 | 15-10 | 60% | 48% (25) | 64% | 23 | 21.9 |
| 2017 | 27 | 17-10 | 63% | 57.7% (26) | 59.3% | 23.4 | 18.3 |
| 2016 | 26 | 16-10 | 61.5% | 46.2% (26) | 53.8% | 23.8 | 18.8 |
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