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Melbourne Storm — NRL Betting Trends & Stats
2016–2026 · 287 games. Every figure below is a record with its sample size, not a projection.
72.1%
Games won (207-80)
52.1%
Against the line (286)
50%
Games over the total
26.2
Points per game
16.3
Conceded per game
Are the Storm a good bet against the line?
The Storm have covered 52.1% of 286 games with a posted line since 2016, against a break-even of 52.4%. That is below break-even, which is the ordinary case — the line exists to make both sides roughly equal, and over a long enough record almost every club lands near 50%. Their straight win rate of 72.1% is a different question entirely: winning often and covering often come apart exactly as the market intends.
How do the Storm perform at home and away?
| Venue | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At home | 151 | 115-36 | 76.2% | 51.7% (151) | 52.3% | 28.2 | 15.3 |
| Away | 136 | 92-44 | 67.6% | 52.6% (135) | 47.4% | 24 | 17.3 |
What happens when the Storm are favourites?
| Market role | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite (13.5+) | 57 | 51-6 | 89.5% | 49.1% (57) | 57.9% | 33.7 | 13.2 |
| Any favourite | 240 | 186-54 | 77.5% | 51.7% (240) | 51.7% | 28 | 15.6 |
| Underdog | 46 | 20-26 | 43.5% | 54.3% (46) | 41.3% | 16.9 | 19.6 |
Which halfs do the Storm win?
| Period | Games | Won | Scored | Conceded | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st half | 282 | 64.2% | 13.2 | 7.9 | +5.3 |
| 2nd half | 282 | 60.3% | 12.9 | 8.2 | +4.7 |
The Storm under each referee
| Referee | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Klein | 47 | 30-17 | 63.8% | 46.8% (47) | 53.2% | 23.7 | 18.6 |
| G. Atkins | 39 | 23-16 | 59% | 53.8% (39) | 56.4% | 25.1 | 17.4 |
| G. Sutton | 38 | 30-8 | 78.9% | 65.8% (38) | 47.4% | 26.5 | 13.2 |
| A. Gee | 27 | 17-10 | 63% | 40.7% (27) | 48.1% | 24.4 | 19.2 |
| M. Cecchin | 25 | 16-9 | 64% | 52% (25) | 44% | 21.7 | 15 |
| B. Cummins | 25 | 22-3 | 88% | 68% (25) | 48% | 26.8 | 12.1 |
| T. Smith | 15 | 11-4 | 73.3% | 64.3% (14) | 57.1% | 31.1 | 18.3 |
| P. Gough | 13 | 10-3 | 76.9% | 30.8% (13) | 53.8% | 30.3 | 19.2 |
| G. Badger | 11 | 9-2 | 81.8% | 27.3% (11) | 27.3% | 19.9 | 13.8 |
| H. Perenara | 9 | 8-1 | 88.9% | 55.6% (9) | 55.6% | 31.7 | 14.2 |
Melbourne Storm head-to-head record
| Opponent | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Roosters | 25 | 18-7 | 72% | 68% (25) | 36% | 22.3 | 14.3 |
| Brisbane Broncos | 24 | 19-5 | 79.2% | 66.7% (24) | 66.7% | 31.4 | 15.4 |
| Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks | 22 | 13-9 | 59.1% | 52.4% (21) | 42.9% | 22.4 | 15.1 |
| Penrith Panthers | 21 | 10-11 | 47.6% | 47.6% (21) | 52.4% | 16.9 | 18.5 |
| Canberra Raiders | 21 | 13-8 | 61.9% | 38.1% (21) | 33.3% | 23.6 | 15.1 |
| Parramatta Eels | 20 | 14-6 | 70% | 60% (20) | 35% | 27.7 | 14.1 |
| South Sydney Rabbitohs | 20 | 15-5 | 75% | 40% (20) | 55% | 25.4 | 18.5 |
| Manly Warringah Sea Eagles | 20 | 13-7 | 65% | 55% (20) | 40% | 25.4 | 16.5 |
| New Zealand Warriors | 18 | 17-1 | 94.4% | 66.7% (18) | 72.2% | 33.2 | 14.7 |
| North Queensland Cowboys | 18 | 14-4 | 77.8% | 44.4% (18) | 55.6% | 22.7 | 18.5 |
| Gold Coast Titans | 16 | 14-2 | 87.5% | 31.3% (16) | 50% | 29.9 | 16.5 |
| Newcastle Knights | 16 | 14-2 | 87.5% | 56.3% (16) | 56.3% | 31.5 | 14.3 |
| Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs | 14 | 10-4 | 71.4% | 50% (14) | 50% | 25.6 | 16.4 |
| Wests Tigers | 14 | 12-2 | 85.7% | 50% (14) | 50% | 32.4 | 15.1 |
| St George Illawarra Dragons | 13 | 8-5 | 61.5% | 38.5% (13) | 61.5% | 27.7 | 20.8 |
| Redcliffe Dolphins | 5 | 3-2 | 60% | 60% (5) | 60% | 26.8 | 23.2 |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opponent | Score | Line | Covered | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Sharks | A | 24–20 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-27 | Broncos | A | 46–20 | -4.5 | yes | over |
| 2026-08-20 | Panthers | H | 14–22 | +7.5 | no | under |
| 2026-08-08 | Sea Eagles | H | 42–20 | +2.5 | yes | over |
| 2026-07-31 | Bulldogs | H | 22–36 | +10.5 | no | over |
| 2026-07-24 | Rabbitohs | A | 26–28 | -1.5 | no | over |
| 2026-07-17 | Roosters | A | 6–14 | +11.5 | yes | under |
| 2026-07-12 | Titans | H | 22–18 | -9.5 | no | under |
| 2026-06-27 | Sea Eagles | A | 4–30 | +5.5 | no | under |
| 2026-06-21 | Raiders | H | 42–20 | -8.5 | yes | over |
Melbourne Storm season by season
| Season | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24 | 11-13 | 45.8% | 39.1% (23) | 60.9% | 24.8 | 24 |
| 2025 | 27 | 19-8 | 70.4% | 40.7% (27) | 55.6% | 27.4 | 19.1 |
| 2024 | 27 | 21-6 | 77.8% | 51.9% (27) | 55.6% | 29 | 18.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | 17-10 | 63% | 51.9% (27) | 44.4% | 24 | 19.9 |
| 2022 | 25 | 15-10 | 60% | 36% (25) | 56% | 27.1 | 17.5 |
| 2021 | 26 | 22-4 | 84.6% | 73.1% (26) | 53.8% | 33.1 | 13 |
| 2020 | 23 | 19-4 | 82.6% | 65.2% (23) | 65.2% | 27.2 | 14.3 |
| 2019 | 27 | 21-6 | 77.8% | 51.9% (27) | 40.7% | 25.1 | 12.1 |
| 2018 | 27 | 18-9 | 66.7% | 44.4% (27) | 44.4% | 22 | 15.5 |
| 2017 | 27 | 23-4 | 85.2% | 63% (27) | 48.1% | 26.5 | 13.3 |
| 2016 | 27 | 21-6 | 77.8% | 55.6% (27) | 29.6% | 22.4 | 12.5 |
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