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Sydney Swans — AFL Betting Trends & Stats
2015–2026 · 282 games. Every figure below is a record with its sample size, not a projection.
61%
Games won (172-109-1)
54.3%
Against the line (282)
48.6%
Games over the total
88.5
Points per game
76
Conceded per game
Are the Swans a good bet against the line?
The Swans have covered 54.3% of 282 games with a posted line since 2015, against a break-even of 52.4%. That is above break-even over this sample, which is worth knowing and is not the same as a system: a line moves with reputation, and a record this long covers several very different squads. Their straight win rate of 61% is a different question entirely: winning often and covering often come apart exactly as the market intends.
How do the Swans perform at home and away?
| Venue | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At home | 143 | 91-51-1 | 63.6% | 51.7% (143) | 46.9% | 91.5 | 73.9 |
| Away | 139 | 81-58 | 58.3% | 56.8% (139) | 50.4% | 85.4 | 78.2 |
What happens when the Swans are favourites?
| Market role | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite (27.5+) | 53 | 46-7 | 86.8% | 49.1% (53) | 60.4% | 109.2 | 66.3 |
| Any favourite | 189 | 137-52 | 72.5% | 52.4% (189) | 51.9% | 96.6 | 72.5 |
| Underdog | 93 | 35-57-1 | 37.6% | 58.1% (93) | 41.9% | 71.9 | 83.1 |
Which quarters do the Swans win?
| Period | Games | Won | Scored | Conceded | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st quarter | 282 | 52.8% | 22.3 | 19.7 | +2.6 |
| 2nd quarter | 282 | 58.2% | 21.7 | 18 | +3.7 |
| 3rd quarter | 282 | 59.2% | 22.8 | 19 | +3.8 |
| 4th quarter | 282 | 51.8% | 21.6 | 19.3 | +2.3 |
The Swans under each umpire
No umpire is recorded against enough Swans games to break this down.
Sydney Swans head-to-head record
| Opponent | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Western Sydney Giants | 27 | 17-10 | 63% | 63% (27) | 55.6% | 88.8 | 79.1 |
| Geelong Cats | 19 | 8-10-1 | 42.1% | 57.9% (19) | 47.4% | 77.6 | 86 |
| Essendon Bombers | 18 | 13-5 | 72.2% | 38.9% (18) | 50% | 91.8 | 76.4 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 18 | 9-9 | 50% | 61.1% (18) | 50% | 84.8 | 69.5 |
| North Melbourne Kangaroos | 18 | 16-2 | 88.9% | 50% (18) | 44.4% | 95.5 | 73.9 |
| Western Bulldogs | 17 | 8-9 | 47.1% | 41.2% (17) | 23.5% | 81.4 | 76.4 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 16 | 7-9 | 43.8% | 43.8% (16) | 37.5% | 79.7 | 79.6 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 16 | 8-8 | 50% | 56.3% (16) | 37.5% | 78.7 | 74.9 |
| Carlton Blues | 16 | 11-5 | 68.8% | 62.5% (16) | 62.5% | 93.8 | 69.8 |
| Brisbane Lions | 16 | 8-8 | 50% | 56.3% (16) | 68.8% | 89.1 | 87.6 |
| St Kilda Saints | 16 | 12-4 | 75% | 50% (16) | 56.3% | 97.6 | 74 |
| Melbourne Demons | 15 | 10-5 | 66.7% | 66.7% (15) | 33.3% | 82.9 | 74.3 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 15 | 10-5 | 66.7% | 60% (15) | 46.7% | 93.6 | 69.7 |
| Richmond Tigers | 14 | 7-7 | 50% | 42.9% (14) | 64.3% | 94.9 | 74.7 |
| Adelaide Crows | 14 | 9-5 | 64.3% | 57.1% (14) | 57.1% | 91.9 | 86.1 |
| Collingwood Magpies | 14 | 9-5 | 64.3% | 42.9% (14) | 35.7% | 80.6 | 72.3 |
| West Coast Eagles | 13 | 10-3 | 76.9% | 69.2% (13) | 53.8% | 106.1 | 62.8 |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opponent | Score | Line | Covered | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Dockers | H | 71–83 | +10.5 | no | under |
| 2026-09-05 | Lions | H | 141–88 | -18.5 | yes | over |
| 2026-08-23 | Kangaroos | H | 123–70 | -7.5 | yes | under |
| 2026-08-16 | Bombers | A | 112–76 | -59.5 | no | over |
| 2026-08-08 | Power | H | 167–70 | -45.5 | yes | over |
| 2026-08-01 | Saints | A | 107–88 | -11.5 | yes | over |
| 2026-07-25 | Giants | A | 139–88 | -10.5 | yes | over |
| 2026-07-17 | Crows | H | 71–87 | -14.5 | no | under |
| 2026-07-09 | Dockers | A | 73–111 | +12.5 | no | over |
| 2026-07-03 | Western Bulldogs | H | 90–55 | -14.5 | yes | under |
Sydney Swans season by season
| Season | Games | W-L | Win% | Against the line | Over | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25 | 19-6 | 76% | 56% (25) | 60% | 110.2 | 81.6 |
| 2025 | 23 | 12-11 | 52.2% | 47.8% (23) | 43.5% | 80.2 | 82.7 |
| 2024 | 26 | 19-7 | 73.1% | 69.2% (26) | 65.4% | 95.6 | 78.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | 12-11-1 | 50% | 50% (24) | 54.2% | 88.3 | 80.7 |
| 2022 | 25 | 18-7 | 72% | 48% (25) | 60% | 92.2 | 76.5 |
| 2021 | 23 | 15-8 | 65.2% | 56.5% (23) | 47.8% | 89.5 | 75.2 |
| 2020 | 17 | 5-12 | 29.4% | 52.9% (17) | 41.2% | 52.4 | 63.4 |
| 2019 | 22 | 8-14 | 36.4% | 59.1% (22) | 36.4% | 77.5 | 79.4 |
| 2018 | 23 | 14-9 | 60.9% | 47.8% (23) | 43.5% | 80.5 | 75.8 |
| 2017 | 24 | 15-9 | 62.5% | 58.3% (24) | 45.8% | 93.9 | 75.2 |
| 2016 | 26 | 19-7 | 73.1% | 61.5% (26) | 42.3% | 98.4 | 68.9 |
| 2015 | 24 | 16-8 | 66.7% | 41.7% (24) | 37.5% | 88.2 | 71.8 |
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