AFL quarter markets — by round
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Quarter line = full-game line ÷ 4, quarter total = full-game total ÷ 4 (bookmakers don't publish historical quarter lines). Each team's Q1–Q4 record is season-to-date: W-L (won the quarter) · ATS (beat the quarter line) · O/U (over the quarter total). Informational only, not betting advice. 18+.
AFL quarter markets — lines, totals and head-to-head
Quarter markets let you bet a single quarter rather than the full game. There are three: quarter head-to-head (which side scores more that quarter, often offered three-way because draws are common), quarter line (a handicap applied to one quarter) and quarter total (over/under on that quarter's combined points).
Bookmakers rarely publish historical quarter lines, so there is no obvious way to judge whether a quarter number is generous. We derive a fair benchmark — the full-game line and total divided by four — and grade every team against it, which produces a like-for-like ATS and over/under record for each of Q1 to Q4.
The patterns are real and persistent. Some sides are habitual fast starters whose Q1 record far outruns their overall form; others fade badly in the last. Home teams have a genuine edge in the third — the old premiership quarter — while thin or tiring line-ups leak points late.
Frequently asked questions
What are AFL quarter markets?
Bets on a single quarter instead of the whole match: the quarter head-to-head, a quarter line (handicap) and a quarter total (over/under on that quarter's points).
How do you grade a quarter line with no historical data?
We divide the full-game line and total by four to create a fair quarter benchmark, then grade every team's real quarter scores against it. It is an estimate, not a bookmaker price, and it is labelled as such throughout.
Which quarter is the most predictable?
The third has the strongest home-team pattern. First quarters are the noisiest, which is why fast-starter records are worth checking rather than assuming.
How often does backing the favourite actually win, and does it make money?
| Code | Strategy | Matches | Correct | Return on turnover |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRL | Back the favourite | 3,631 | 66.2% | -3.8% |
| NRL | Back the home side | 3,631 | 56.7% | -1.9% |
| NRL | Back the underdog | 3,631 | 33.4% | -4.5% |
| AFL | Back the favourite | 3,571 | 69.7% | -4.7% |
| AFL | Back the home side | 3,571 | 56.7% | -2.2% |
| AFL | Back the underdog | 3,571 | 29.4% | -9.8% |
These are the baselines, not tips, and the gap between the two columns is the whole point: backing the favourite picks the winner about two times in three and still loses money at flat stakes, because the price already accounts for it. The break-even strike rate at standard −110 pricing is 52.4%. Any strategy on this site is reported against these numbers rather than against a coin flip.