Which AFL teams are on a winning streak?

Brisbane Lions have won 3 in a row.

How is a streak measured here?

Edge is measured against each club’s own rate in the same season, excluding both the graded game and the run itself, then corrected by subtracting what the identical calculation finds on data whose runs have been destroyed by shuffling outcomes within each season. The spread across those shuffles is the noise floor.

By Johnathan Cruzen-Myer · Updated 12 October 2026 · How this is measured

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AFL Streaks — What's Hot, and Whether It Means Anything

Current runs by club, and the measured answer to the question the list raises. Updated with each week's results.

Clubs on a run of 3+

Longest current run

Run lengths tested

Clear the noise band (1.8 expected)

Which AFL teams are hot right now?

Current runs of three or more. A draw, a push, or a game with no posted line is skipped rather than counted as a break.
Club	Run	Length	Last game
Brisbane Lions	run of overs	5	2026-09-26
Collingwood Magpies	run of overs	4	2026-08-28
Geelong Cats	run of overs	4	2026-09-11
Brisbane Lions	winning run	3	2026-09-26
Port Adelaide Power	run of overs	3	2026-08-23

Which AFL teams are cold?

Current runs of three or more, the other way. A draw, a push, or a game with no posted line is skipped rather than counted as a break.
Club	Run	Length	Last game
West Coast Eagles	Winning runs (against them)	11	2026-08-23
Essendon Bombers	Winning runs (against them)	5	2026-08-23
West Coast Eagles	against the line (against them)	5	2026-08-23
Richmond Tigers	Winning runs (against them)	3	2026-08-22

Does a AFL streak predict the next game?

Of 36 run lengths tested in the AFL, 4 clear the noise band — and about 1.8 would clear it on chance alone, so a count this high turns up about 10.4% of the time with nothing going on. No run length here tells you anything about the next game.

The test is the one the list invites: take every game in the record, work out the run the club was on going into it using only earlier games, then see what happened. The comparison is not 50% and not the league average — it is that club's own rate in that same season, with both the graded game and the run itself removed, because a club on a six-game losing run has a bad season record largely because of those six games and comparing the run against a figure that contains it compares the run with itself.

Even that is not enough. Running the identical calculation over data whose runs have been destroyed — the same clubs, the same season rates, outcomes shuffled within each season, so the true answer is known to be zero — the method still reports an edge of two to five points. That is bias, not signal, so it is measured and subtracted. The Edge column below is after that correction, and the Noise column is the spread across those shuffles. An edge inside the noise is not a finding.

Winning runs

After a run of N, what happened in the very next game. After N consecutive games in which the club won. "Expected" is the club's own rate in the same season with both that game and the run itself removed. "Noise" is the spread the identical calculation produces on data whose runs have been shuffled away.
Run	Next games	Continued	Expected	Edge	Noise (1 SD)	Beats noise?
1 in a row	1,097	52.3%	49.6%	+0.3	±1.5	no
2 in a row	574	55.1%	53.5%	-1.2	±2	no
3 in a row	315	52.4%	55.3%	-5.8	±2.9	yes
4 in a row	165	63%	56.6%	+3.8	±4	no
5 in a row	104	71.2%	57.9%	+11.5	±6.9	no
6+ in a row	196	62.2%	58.1%	+3.3	±5.4	no

Runs against the line

After a run of N, what happened in the very next game. After N consecutive games in which the club covered the line. "Expected" is the club's own rate in the same season with both that game and the run itself removed. "Noise" is the spread the identical calculation produces on data whose runs have been shuffled away.
Run	Next games	Continued	Expected	Edge	Noise (1 SD)	Beats noise?
1 in a row	1,262	51.3%	48.1%	+0.8	±1.6	no
2 in a row	645	48.8%	47.5%	-0.9	±1.8	no
3 in a row	315	41.9%	47.1%	-6.7	±2.9	yes
4 in a row	132	44.7%	45.7%	-2.5	±4.1	no
5 in a row	59	49.2%	46.3%	+2.3	±5.1	no
6+ in a row	56	48.2%	47.3%	-0.8	±4.5	no

Runs over the total

After a run of N, what happened in the very next game. After N consecutive games in which the club gone over the total. "Expected" is the club's own rate in the same season with both that game and the run itself removed. "Noise" is the spread the identical calculation produces on data whose runs have been shuffled away.
Run	Next games	Continued	Expected	Edge	Noise (1 SD)	Beats noise?
1 in a row	1,226	49.1%	46.2%	+0.5	±1.5	no
2 in a row	601	48.9%	46%	+1	±2	no
3 in a row	293	50.5%	46.5%	+1.2	±2.5	no
4 in a row	146	44.5%	47.2%	-4.7	±2.9	no
5 in a row	64	45.3%	46.3%	-1.9	±6.2	no
6+ in a row	57	49.1%	44.3%	+2.1	±9.7	no

Why a hot streak is not an edge

A run is public. Everyone can see it, including the people setting the line, and the line moves to absorb it — a club on four straight wins is priced as a club on four straight wins. What is left to bet on is whatever the market got wrong about the run, which is a much smaller and much noisier quantity than the run itself. That is why straight winning persists in these tables while covering the line does not: winning is about the team, covering is about the team relative to its price.

The break-even strike rate at standard −110 pricing is 52.4%, not 50%. A run length that continues 51% of the time is a losing bet made at a profit-looking number.

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Built 2026-10-12. Across all four codes, 21 of 144 run lengths clear the noise band against about 7.2 expected by chance.