Understand AFL betting with data
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Home-win %, favourite-win % and over-the-total % by season.
Favourites win ~70% of AFL games and home favourites even more — but totals and line markets sit near 50/50, i.e. closing lines are efficient. The measurable edge is the market-move signal below.
⚡ Spread splitter — half-time & 2nd-half line
A handy rule: halve the full-game spread to estimate the half-time and second-half handicap (each half is roughly half the game). Average game spread in this dataset: – points.
| Date | Match | Score | Odds H/A | Line | Total | Fav | Result |
|---|
Green = favourite won / over the total hit. Odds are closing prices. Completed rounds only.
Bounce & letdown — how teams do the game AFTER facing each opponent
All-time. Low win % = a "letdown" spot; high = a "bounce". Also over % and line-cover % of that next game.
| After facing… | Next games | Win % | Over % | Cover % |
|---|
Last 3 seasons. Click a column to sort. Form = last 5 games (most recent on the right).
| Team | GP | Win% | Home% | Away% | PF | PA | Marg | Over% | Fav% | Form |
|---|
AFL analysis — head-to-head, line and totals
AFL betting runs on the same three core markets as any code — head-to-head, line and totals — but the numbers behave differently. AFL favourites win around 70% of matches, well above the NRL's 62%, because the scoring system gives less room for upsets.
That higher base rate cuts both ways. It means a favourite-backing tipping strategy looks impressive on raw hit rate, and it means the prices are short enough that the strategy still does not make money. Any genuine AFL edge has to be measured against that flat benchmark, not against 50%.
Beyond the core markets, AFL offers two layers most codes do not: quarter markets, where each quarter is priced separately, and a deep player prop market built on disposals, goals, marks and tackles. Both have their own pages here.
Frequently asked questions
How often do AFL favourites win?
Roughly 70% of matches in recent seasons — noticeably higher than the NRL, which is why AFL tipping competitions are usually won with scores above 75%.
What is the AFL line?
A points handicap applied to one side. Because AFL margins are large and variable, the lines are correspondingly wider than in rugby league.
How often does backing the favourite actually win, and does it make money?
| Code | Strategy | Matches | Correct | Return on turnover |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRL | Back the favourite | 3,631 | 66.2% | -3.8% |
| NRL | Back the home side | 3,631 | 56.7% | -1.9% |
| NRL | Back the underdog | 3,631 | 33.4% | -4.5% |
| AFL | Back the favourite | 3,571 | 69.7% | -4.7% |
| AFL | Back the home side | 3,571 | 56.7% | -2.2% |
| AFL | Back the underdog | 3,571 | 29.4% | -9.8% |
These are the baselines, not tips, and the gap between the two columns is the whole point: backing the favourite picks the winner about two times in three and still loses money at flat stakes, because the price already accounts for it. The break-even strike rate at standard −110 pricing is 52.4%. Any strategy on this site is reported against these numbers rather than against a coin flip.