NBA Streaks — What's Hot, and Whether It Means Anything
Current runs by club, and the measured answer to the question the list raises. Updated with each week's results.
Which NBA teams are hot right now?
| Club | Run | Length | Last game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Timberwolves | run of overs | 5 | 2026-05-15 |
| Miami Heat | run of overs | 4 | 2026-04-14 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | run of overs | 4 | 2026-04-12 |
| Sacramento Kings | covering run | 4 | 2026-04-12 |
| Indiana Pacers | covering run | 3 | 2026-04-12 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | run of overs | 3 | 2026-05-11 |
| Miami Heat | covering run | 3 | 2026-04-14 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | run of overs | 3 | 2026-04-12 |
| Phoenix Suns | run of overs | 3 | 2026-04-27 |
| Sacramento Kings | run of overs | 3 | 2026-04-12 |
| Toronto Raptors | run of overs | 3 | 2026-05-03 |
Which NBA teams are cold?
| Club | Run | Length | Last game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Wizards | Winning runs (against them) | 11 | 2026-04-12 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | Winning runs (against them) | 8 | 2026-04-12 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | Winning runs (against them) | 6 | 2026-05-10 |
| Charlotte Hornets | against the line (against them) | 5 | 2026-04-17 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | Winning runs (against them) | 5 | 2026-04-28 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | against the line (against them) | 5 | 2026-04-28 |
| Washington Wizards | against the line (against them) | 5 | 2026-04-12 |
| Boston Celtics | Winning runs (against them) | 4 | 2026-05-02 |
| Boston Celtics | against the line (against them) | 4 | 2026-05-02 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Winning runs (against them) | 4 | 2026-05-25 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | against the line (against them) | 4 | 2026-05-25 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | Winning runs (against them) | 4 | 2026-05-11 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | against the line (against them) | 4 | 2026-05-10 |
| Phoenix Suns | Winning runs (against them) | 4 | 2026-04-27 |
| Atlanta Hawks | Winning runs (against them) | 3 | 2026-04-30 |
| Atlanta Hawks | against the line (against them) | 3 | 2026-04-30 |
| Brooklyn Nets | Winning runs (against them) | 3 | 2026-04-12 |
| Brooklyn Nets | against the line (against them) | 3 | 2026-04-12 |
| Orlando Magic | Winning runs (against them) | 3 | 2026-05-03 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | over the total (against them) | 3 | 2026-04-28 |
Does a NBA streak predict the next game?
Of 36 run lengths tested in the NBA, 14 clear the noise band against about 1.8 expected by chance — a count that would turn up by luck less than 0.1% of the time. Something real is going on in the NBA. It is a statement about persistence rather than about price, though: the line moves with form too, and the break-even at standard odds is 52.4%, not 50%.
The test is the one the list invites: take every game in the record, work out the run the club was on going into it using only earlier games, then see what happened. The comparison is not 50% and not the league average — it is that club's own rate in that same season, with both the graded game and the run itself removed, because a club on a six-game losing run has a bad season record largely because of those six games and comparing the run against a figure that contains it compares the run with itself.
Even that is not enough. Running the identical calculation over data whose runs have been destroyed — the same clubs, the same season rates, outcomes shuffled within each season, so the true answer is known to be zero — the method still reports an edge of two to five points. That is bias, not signal, so it is measured and subtracted. The Edge column below is after that correction, and the Noise column is the spread across those shuffles. An edge inside the noise is not a finding.
Winning runs
| Run | Next games | Continued | Expected | Edge | Noise (1 SD) | Beats noise? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 in a row | 2,405 | 55.2% | 50.4% | +4.1 | ±0.9 | yes |
| 2 in a row | 1,327 | 54.1% | 52.8% | +0.8 | ±1 | no |
| 3 in a row | 718 | 58.6% | 55.3% | +2.4 | ±1.6 | no |
| 4 in a row | 421 | 57.2% | 56.4% | +0.2 | ±1.8 | no |
| 5 in a row | 241 | 63.9% | 57.7% | +5.5 | ±2.7 | yes |
| 6+ in a row | 477 | 67.7% | 60.3% | +6.8 | ±2.3 | yes |
Runs against the line
| Run | Next games | Continued | Expected | Edge | Noise (1 SD) | Beats noise? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 in a row | 2,591 | 53% | 49.3% | +3.3 | ±1.2 | yes |
| 2 in a row | 1,374 | 50.7% | 49.6% | +0.2 | ±1 | no |
| 3 in a row | 694 | 53.7% | 49.8% | +2.9 | ±2.1 | no |
| 4 in a row | 372 | 53.8% | 49.9% | +3.4 | ±2 | no |
| 5 in a row | 200 | 60% | 50.2% | +9.5 | ±3.8 | yes |
| 6+ in a row | 267 | 55.1% | 49.7% | +5.4 | ±4.8 | no |
Runs over the total
| Run | Next games | Continued | Expected | Edge | Noise (1 SD) | Beats noise? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 in a row | 2,647 | 54.4% | 49.8% | +4 | ±0.8 | yes |
| 2 in a row | 1,433 | 52.2% | 49.8% | +1.9 | ±1.4 | no |
| 3 in a row | 743 | 54.2% | 49.7% | +4.9 | ±1.8 | yes |
| 4 in a row | 401 | 52.4% | 49.6% | +2.2 | ±2.5 | no |
| 5 in a row | 209 | 45.5% | 49.5% | -3.6 | ±3.4 | no |
| 6+ in a row | 181 | 47.5% | 49.3% | -0.3 | ±3.6 | no |
Why a hot streak is not an edge
A run is public. Everyone can see it, including the people setting the line, and the line moves to absorb it — a club on four straight wins is priced as a club on four straight wins. What is left to bet on is whatever the market got wrong about the run, which is a much smaller and much noisier quantity than the run itself. That is why straight winning persists in these tables while covering the line does not: winning is about the team, covering is about the team relative to its price.
The break-even strike rate at standard −110 pricing is 52.4%, not 50%. A run length that continues 51% of the time is a losing bet made at a profit-looking number.
More NBA
Built 2026-10-12. Across all four codes, 21 of 144 run lengths clear the noise band against about 7.2 expected by chance.