The dashed level is the "fair" quarter line = game total ÷ 4. Bars above it are quarters that tend to over; below tend to under.
Highest / lowest scoring quarter
Quarter
Avg pts
Share of game
vs fair line
Most-often highest
Most-often lowest
Quarter markets — against the line (derived)
Quarter
Home covers (line ÷ 4)
Over (total ÷ 4)
Team quarter scoring
Latest season — by round
Round
Games
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Total
Informational only, not betting advice · 18+.
How often does backing the favourite actually win, and does it make money?
Flat-stake results for the three naive strategies across NRL and AFL, 2009–2026.
Code
Strategy
Matches
Correct
Return on turnover
NRL
Back the favourite
3,631
66.2%
-3.8%
NRL
Back the home side
3,631
56.7%
-1.9%
NRL
Back the underdog
3,631
33.4%
-4.5%
AFL
Back the favourite
3,571
69.7%
-4.7%
AFL
Back the home side
3,571
56.7%
-2.2%
AFL
Back the underdog
3,571
29.4%
-9.8%
These are the baselines, not tips, and the gap between the two columns is the whole point: backing the
favourite picks the winner about two times in three and still loses money at flat stakes, because the price
already accounts for it. The break-even strike rate at standard −110 pricing is 52.4%. Any strategy on this
site is reported against these numbers rather than against a coin flip.