Tipping backtest
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ℹ️ How tipping works
The idea. A "tip" is a pick of one team to win a game. This page backtests fixed strategies over historical results so you can see how each would have performed if you'd followed it every round — no hindsight, just the rule applied game by game.
Favourite system. Each round, tip a side by a simple rule — Tip favourite (the shorter price), Tip home team, or Tip underdog. We grade every tip against the actual result and total it by round and season: tips made, correct, correct %, and a flat $10-per-tip profit/loss at the closing price (so you can see if "just backing favourites" actually makes money after the bookmaker's margin — usually it doesn't).
Model tips ★. Instead of a blanket rule, the model rates each game from season form — win/loss, points for and against, home-ground edge, rest and recent momentum — turns that into a win probability, de-vigs the market price, and only tips when it sees an edge (its probability beats the market's implied chance). Confidence (lean → medium → high) rises with the size of that edge. The backtest then grades those model tips the same way.
Use it to judge a strategy's hit rate and ROI, not to predict any single game. Informational only — not betting advice.
Season by season (click a season to see each round)
| Season | Tips | Correct | Correct % | $10-flat P&L | ROI |
|---|
"Correct" = the tipped team won (as in an ESPN/office tipping comp). "$10-flat P&L" bets $10 on each tip at the closing price — a positive number means the strategy beat the bookmaker margin, which favourites rarely do. Per-round detail for the last 3 seasons.