Game tryscoring — timing trends

Q: Why does first try timing matter for betting?

Games where the first try arrives early tend to produce higher totals and more first-try-scorer turnover. Sides that concede early also tend to trail at half-time, which moves half-time line and half-time/full-time markets.

Q: What counts as an early try here?

We report the opening-eight-minute trend as the main early marker, plus each team's overall record for scoring or conceding the game's first try.

By Johnathan Cruzen-Myer · Updated 12 October 2026 · How this is measured

Loading…

⏱️ First-try & late-try markets — is it a good bet?

Market	Season hit	Fair (break-even) odds	Value line (bet above)	Verdict

When the FIRST try is scored

When the LAST try is scored

Before / after the 8-minute mark & final 5 minutes

Split	Games	Share

The 8:00 and last-5:00 thresholds are common in-play markets (first try / late try). Shares are across all completed games this season.

Historical record — timing markets by round

Round	Games	Avg 1st try	1st try <8:00	Avg last try	Try in last 5

How the two headline timing markets actually landed each round: 1st try <8:00 and a try in the final 5:00 are the hit rates you'd have been grading the "best bets" against. "Per round" is that round alone; "Cumulative (to round)" is the running season rate using only games up to that round — what you'd have known at the time (no hindsight). Per-team first-try lean grading needs a per-game first-try log (not in the current timing feed); these market-level rates are the gradeable history for now.

Team first/last try & conceding

Team	GP	Scores 1st	Scores last	Concedes 1st	Concede 1st <8:00	Score 1st H/A	Concede 1st H/A

"Concedes first" = share of games the opponent scored the first try; "concede 1st <8:00" flags teams that ship an early try (e.g. back the opponent's first-try / a first-try-inside-8min market). H/A splits show it at home vs away. (Concede/H-A columns fill in after the next scoreflow scrape.)

🏟️ Location & referee — who scores first?

By referee

Referee	Games	Home scores 1st	1st try <8:00	Try in last 5

Does the man in the middle see the home side open the scoring more often? A referee well above the league home-scores-first baseline is a lean toward the home team's first-try / first-scoring markets in his games; a high 1st try <8:00 favours the "first try before 8:00" bet. Min 4 games.

By venue

Venue	Games	Home scores 1st	1st try <8:00	Try in last 5

Grounds where the home team opens the scoring at a high rate are fortresses for first-try markets. Min 4 games.

Try scoring analysis — timing, trends and first-try patterns

Try scoring analysis is about when points arrive, not just who scores them. A side that concedes inside the opening eight minutes is a different betting proposition from one that leaks late, even if their season points-against figures match.

This page tracks the first and last try of every NRL game: how early the opener lands, how often a try comes in the final five minutes, and which teams reliably strike first versus concede first. Those patterns feed first-try-scorer pricing and the half-time markets more than most bettors realise.

Pair this with the try-scorer market page for the player-level read, and with the round guide for the referee, rest and travel context behind each fixture.

Frequently asked questions

Why does first try timing matter for betting?

Games where the first try arrives early tend to produce higher totals and more first-try-scorer turnover. Sides that concede early also tend to trail at half-time, which moves half-time line and half-time/full-time markets.

What counts as an early try here?

We report the opening-eight-minute trend as the main early marker, plus each team's overall record for scoring or conceding the game's first try.

Round 30 — 2026 NRL results, lines and totals

Round 30 NRL results with the closing home line and total points line.
Match	Date	Venue	Result	Line	Total
Newcastle Knights at Penrith Panthers	2026-09-27	Accor Stadium	Penrith Panthers 14–22 Newcastle Knights	Penrith Panthers -6.5	41.5

1 match in Round 30, all complete. The closing line and total are shown beside each result so the margin can be read against what the market expected. When the next round's fixtures are posted this table becomes the upcoming card.