🏈 NFL Player Markets
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This week's picks
Backtest — how often the #1 pick hits
By week
| Week | Picks | Hit | Hit % |
|---|
Defense vs position — the "wing thing"
What each defense concedes per game to the positions this market is about. Rank 1 = leakiest. Click a header to sort.
Season leaders
NFL player props — touchdown best picks, rushing and receiving yards
Anytime touchdown is the NFL's flagship player prop and the closest analogue to the NRL's anytime try scorer: a binary market where goal-line role matters far more than overall talent. A back who gets the ball inside the five is a better anytime touchdown pick than a more productive back who does not.
Yardage props — rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions and passing yards — are over/under lines on a counting stat. This page grades each against the player's own trailing median as a stand-in for the posted line, then layers on what the opposing defence actually concedes per game to that position.
That defence-versus-position read is the key input. A receiver facing a defence that gives up the most receiving yards in the league to wideouts is in a materially different spot from the same player facing the stingiest, and the posted line does not always move far enough to reflect it.
Frequently asked questions
What is an anytime touchdown bet?
It pays if your player scores a touchdown at any point in the game, rushing or receiving. It is the most popular NFL player prop because the outcome is simple and the prices are readable.
How do you judge a rushing yards prop?
We compare the player's recent production against what the opposing defence concedes to that position per game, and grade historical hit rates walk-forward — using only data available before each game, never hindsight.
Do you cover defensive player props?
Not currently. The underlying box-score data covers passing, rushing and receiving only, so the markets here are offensive. Defensive and snap-count data would need a separate source.