🏈 NFL Player Markets
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How these are built. For every player named in a team's last three games we take their season hit rate in the market (shrunk toward the position average when the sample is small), then weight it by what the opposing defense concedes to that position — the NFL version of the Wing Thing — and by the player's home/away, primetime, vs-this-opponent and at-this-venue history. Yardage and reception markets are graded as over the player's own season median (a stand-in for the posted line). Conviction is a ranking score; everything below is backtested walk-forward on completed weeks.
This week's picks
Backtest — how often the #1 pick hits
By week
| Week | Picks | Hit | Hit % |
|---|
Defense vs position — the "wing thing"
What each defense concedes per game to the positions this market is about. Rank 1 = leakiest. Click a header to sort.
Season leaders
Player box scores, rosters, venues and kickoffs from ESPN's public site API; game lines/totals from SportsDatabase. Yardage "lines" are each player's season median, not a bookmaker price. Backtest is in-sample on completed weeks — a small early-season sample; hit rates settle as more history loads. Informational only, not betting advice · 18+ · Gamble responsibly.