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Is that price worth taking?

Type in a posted board and this puts the model's number next to it: what the price implies, what it implies once the margin is stripped out, and whether the gap survives its own confidence interval.

Read this first. Everything else on this site measures a model against a base rate — is it better than knowing only how often a thing happens. That is the wrong question, because the bookmaker knows the handicap too. This page asks the right one, and the honest answer is usually no. The model behind it is built from 2,667 games, 2016–2026, and knows only the handicap and the total. It does not know who is injured, who is starting, or what the market learned this morning.

The handicap is from the home side: negative when the home team is favoured. Getting it backwards reverses every number below and nothing in the output would show it.

MarketHome priceAway price
Team to score first
Race to 5
Race to 10
Race to 15
Race to 20

Optional, and worth filling in — the main lines are what the derived markets get compared against for margin.

How to read the three columns

  1. Implied is 100 ÷ the price. It includes the margin, and it is the number an edge has to beat, because it is the bet you can actually place.
  2. De-vigged rescales the market's outcomes to sum to 100%, which removes the fee and leaves the book's opinion. Use it to tell a real disagreement from a large margin: if the model and the de-vigged price agree closely, the model has not found anything, however red the edge column looks.
  3. Edge is model minus implied. Positive is necessary and nowhere near sufficient — the verdict line under each market says whether the whole confidence interval clears the price, and only that counts as a finding.

What this cannot tell you

The model reads the posted handicap and total and nothing else. When it disagrees with the market, the most likely explanation is that the market knows something it does not — an injury, a late line move, a team in form. The intervals come from a bootstrap computed on a grid of handicaps rather than at your exact one, so they are approximate in the second decimal, and they are deliberately widened for the gap. And a price is only half the question: the other half is whether you can get on at it.

All NFL market pricesNFL home How this is measured

Informational only, not betting advice · 18+ · Gamble responsibly. Break-even at standard −110 pricing is 52.4%.

Results and closing lines from aussportsbetting (NRL, AFL) and SportsDatabase (NFL, NBA). Every figure is a historical record with its sample size shown, not a prediction. A push is excluded from against-the-line records rather than counted as a loss. Informational only, not betting advice · 18+ · Gamble responsibly.