Model tips — spread & total

How the model tips work. For every NRL game this round the model rates both sides from season-to-date form and turns that into a pick for two markets:

🎯 Against the spread (ATS / line). The bookmaker gives the underdog a points head-start (the line). "Covering" means beating that line, not just winning. The model compares each team's season cover rate (how often they beat the line) and the venue, then tips the side more likely to cover, with a cover probability. Confidence rises with the gap.

📊 Total points (over/under). The bookmaker sets a total for the two teams' combined points. The model blends both teams' scoring and concede rates with the venue's over-rate to estimate the game's points, then tips Over or Under that line.

Each tip shows a probability and a confidence tier (lean → medium → high). The season hit rate at the top of each tab is how the market's best backtested rule has actually performed — see the full model accuracy history. Informational only, not betting advice · 18+.