BetterBet

Team tips — season history

By · Updated · How this is measured

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RoundGamesCorrectHit %Rate
Informational only, not betting advice · 18+ · Gamble responsibly.

How often does backing the favourite actually win, and does it make money?

Flat-stake results for the three naive strategies across NRL and AFL, 2009–2026.
CodeStrategyMatchesCorrectReturn on turnover
NRLBack the favourite3,63166.2%-3.8%
NRLBack the home side3,63156.7%-1.9%
NRLBack the underdog3,63133.4%-4.5%
AFLBack the favourite3,57169.7%-4.7%
AFLBack the home side3,57156.7%-2.2%
AFLBack the underdog3,57129.4%-9.8%

These are the baselines, not tips, and the gap between the two columns is the whole point: backing the favourite picks the winner about two times in three and still loses money at flat stakes, because the price already accounts for it. The break-even strike rate at standard −110 pricing is 52.4%. Any strategy on this site is reported against these numbers rather than against a coin flip.

How accurate have the team tips been this season?

The table above is the record: which side the model picked each round and whether it was right. It is kept visible whether the number flatters the model or not, because a tip history that only appears in good seasons is not a history.

What is a good hit rate for picking NRL winners?

Context matters more than the number. The market favourite wins 66.7% of NRL matches and the home side wins 56.2%, so a model picking winners at 60% is doing worse than simply backing the favourite every week. And backing every favourite at flat stakes still returned −3.8% across 3,631 matches. A winner-picking rate is only meaningful next to the price it was available at.

What are these tips measured against?

Against the only yardstick that means anything: what the same selection would have returned anyway. Over 2,222 completed NRL matches from 2016–2026, the home side wins 56.2% and the market favourite wins 66.7% — but the home side covers the spread only 50.3% of the time and the over lands 48.6%. Both sit below the 52.4% strike rate needed to break even at standard −110 pricing. Backing every favourite at flat stakes across 3,631 matches picked the winner 66.2% of the time and still returned −3.8% on turnover. Picking winners and losing money is the normal case.

Do the situational trends behind these tips actually work?

Measured honestly, no, and that is published rather than buried. Replayed walk-forward over 8,251 predictions, NRL situational trends hit 55.3% against a matched baseline of 57.5% — the same teams' own rate over exactly the matches each trend fired on. The trends land below what the teams were already doing, so the apparent edge is the baseline, not a finding. Any site comparing a trend against 50% or against the league average will show you a much better number and a much less true one.

Where does the data come from?

Historical NRL odds, closing lines and totals come from aussportsbetting.com; match detail, team lists and scoring from rugbyleagueproject.org. Everything is computed walk-forward: at each match the model reads only matches played before it, so no figure on this site was produced with knowledge of its own result. Nothing here is betting advice.

Frequently asked questions

What is a good hit rate for NRL tipping?

Higher than 66.7%, which is how often the market favourite simply wins. A model picking 60% of winners is doing worse than backing the favourite every week.

Does a high NRL tipping accuracy mean profit?

No. Backing every NRL favourite picked the winner 66.2% of the time across 3,631 matches and still returned -3.8% on turnover at flat stakes, because the price accounts for it.