⭐ Premium Picks — historical hit rate

By Johnathan Cruzen-Myer · Updated 12 October 2026 · How this is measured

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Hit rate by conviction cutoff

Raising the conviction bar filters to fewer, stronger plays. The top play column grades only the single #1 edge hot-spot per game; the whole board column grades every edge pick the page lists (deduped per game).

Conviction	Top play	Whole board

Split by game total (over/under)

Games with an above-average total line vs below. Higher-scoring games mean more tries to go around.

Filter	High total	Low total

By favourite / underdog spread

Focus team	Plays	Correct	Hit %

Top pick by round

The #1 edge hot-spot each round — tap a row for the plays. Conviction and the game total are shown per pick.

Round	Games	Correct	Hit %

Backtested walk-forward on the current season — recomputed from data available before each round, graded anytime-try. Selection is in-sample, so this is the best read so far, not a guarantee; a single season is a small sample. Informational only, not betting advice · 18+ · Gamble responsibly.

How often does backing the favourite actually win, and does it make money?

Flat-stake results for the three naive strategies across NRL and AFL, 2009–2026.
Code	Strategy	Matches	Correct	Return on turnover
NRL	Back the favourite	3,631	66.2%	-3.8%
NRL	Back the home side	3,631	56.7%	-1.9%
NRL	Back the underdog	3,631	33.4%	-4.5%
AFL	Back the favourite	3,571	69.7%	-4.7%
AFL	Back the home side	3,571	56.7%	-2.2%
AFL	Back the underdog	3,571	29.4%	-9.8%

These are the baselines, not tips, and the gap between the two columns is the whole point: backing the favourite picks the winner about two times in three and still loses money at flat stakes, because the price already accounts for it. The break-even strike rate at standard −110 pricing is 52.4%. Any strategy on this site is reported against these numbers rather than against a coin flip.