⭐ Premium Picks — historical hit rate
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Hit rate by conviction cutoff
Raising the conviction bar filters to fewer, stronger plays. The top play column grades only the single #1 edge hot-spot per game; the whole board column grades every edge pick the page lists (deduped per game).
| Conviction | Top play | Whole board |
|---|
Split by game total (over/under)
Games with an above-average total line vs below. Higher-scoring games mean more tries to go around.
| Filter | High total | Low total |
|---|
By favourite / underdog spread
| Focus team | Plays | Correct | Hit % |
|---|
Top pick by round
The #1 edge hot-spot each round — tap a row for the plays. Conviction and the game total are shown per pick.
| Round | Games | Correct | Hit % |
|---|
Backtested walk-forward on the current season — recomputed from data available before each round, graded anytime-try. Selection is in-sample, so this is the best read so far, not a guarantee; a single season is a small sample. Informational only, not betting advice · 18+ · Gamble responsibly.