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Points for vs against
Win % by split
Form timeline
Splits table
Stat by split
Form timeline
Splits table
Round 30 — 2026 NRL results, lines and totals
| Match | Date | Venue | Result | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle Knights at Penrith Panthers | 2026-09-27 | Accor Stadium | Penrith Panthers 14–22 Newcastle Knights | Penrith Panthers -6.5 | 41.5 |
1 match in Round 30, all complete. The closing line and total are shown beside each result so the margin can be read against what the market expected. When the next round's fixtures are posted this table becomes the upcoming card.
How often does backing the favourite actually win, and does it make money?
| Code | Strategy | Matches | Correct | Return on turnover |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRL | Back the favourite | 3,631 | 66.2% | -3.8% |
| NRL | Back the home side | 3,631 | 56.7% | -1.9% |
| NRL | Back the underdog | 3,631 | 33.4% | -4.5% |
| AFL | Back the favourite | 3,571 | 69.7% | -4.7% |
| AFL | Back the home side | 3,571 | 56.7% | -2.2% |
| AFL | Back the underdog | 3,571 | 29.4% | -9.8% |
These are the baselines, not tips, and the gap between the two columns is the whole point: backing the favourite picks the winner about two times in three and still loses money at flat stakes, because the price already accounts for it. The break-even strike rate at standard −110 pricing is 52.4%. Any strategy on this site is reported against these numbers rather than against a coin flip.